Why The Ukip No-Shows In Local Elections ...

Every Thursday, across the country, democracy rears it's head on a local level, as between 3 and sometimes 12 local Council seats are up for grabs.

It's fair to say that local considerations are often to the fore in these events. But to a certain degree they can also be used as a gauge to national support. It's the wrong way to go about things - but it's a fact.

Two things we've increasingly noticed in this year, 2016;

The Actual Vote Share drop for Ukip : 42%

Ukip will often point to polls for their support (and we all know how that went at #Brexit time) but when it comes down to it, at local Council and even Westminster by-elections, their actual vote share has taken a pounding.

Data which is publicly available for all to analyse, and summarised by 'Britain Elects' shows that on average (and it can only be significant as an average) their actual vote share has dropped by 42%.

That's a fair drop, considering Ukip have been talking 'surge' and 'earthquake' for so long it's become a bit of a joke.

There are some counties, notably Cornwall among them, where Ukip have not only gone from 1st to last .. but have been wiped off the map completely.

The Level of Non-Candidacy, Across The Country.

About two-fifths of local seats are fought over without a Ukip Candidate even standing. This is the result, we believe of two factors:
  1. The collapse of many branches nationwide (and amalgamation of others) as a result of their substantial drop in membership;
  2. The requirement for a deposit payable to the party, simply for the right to be a Candidate, which is forfeit upon the usual poor showing. We know this applies at National level, to the tune of £5000 - yes, Five Grand - and although we have no confirmation it applies locally as well, we hear that a lower amount still applies. The 'People's Party', eh?
And this doesn't seem to be regional - it's nationwide.

Grass-roots politics may be a bit boring for some .. but it is where support and volunteers come from at General Election time. It's key.

This at a time when Ukip hope - and claim - to be 'Taking Back The Norf'. Not on this performance ... they're losing it.