Ukip Is Officially Dying As A Political Force

Batten has changed Ukip from a Political Organisation into a disorganised Street Gang

This Guardian piece today is interesting, not so much on the level of Ukip membership - but the type of people who have left, and who have joined.

Their investigation reveals exodus of party’s moderates and influx of more extreme newcomers. Why is this important ?
... an exodus of more moderate senior members and local organisers.
Because it's those local organisers who do the grunt work on Election Time. No grunts, less support, less votes.
... replaced by entrants attracted by an anti-Islam agenda based on street protest.
And the replacements are not the time to go out leafleting in the rain. They rarely even attend street protests if it's a bit drizzly.

Leader Gerard Batten's stated aim - in his own words, moving Ukip to the 'Hard Right', may gain some publicity, for a while, but ultimately it leads to political castration. The ones who did the hard work are gone, or going. Polls may rise and fall, wavering around the 5% to 7% mark, but without local candidates and local campaigns, who will they have to vote for?

It is primarily the influx into Ukip of people such as Steven Yaxley-Lennon that has driven moderates away. Also seen here is another Ukip advisor, knife-carrying armed kidnapper Danny Thompson.

Since Batten took over as Ukip leader last year, he has proposed new policies including extra checks for immigrants from Islamic countries and Muslim-only prisons, while his families spokesman has said Muslims gangs are responsible for “a holocaust of our children”.

Such changes, together with the appointment of Tommy Robinson, prompted a series of MEPs to QUIT the party. Insiders say this change has been reflected at local level, with many party organisers leaving. A source at one of Ukip’s former strongholds, Thanet in Kent, called the party operation there “a shadow of what it used to be”.

Robert Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester, said ,,,
Ukip could be too radioactive to pick up disaffected Tory voters. If Ukip end up as BNP 2.0, there’s a very low popularity ceiling on that.
The next couple of years are going to be very, very unpredictable in British politics. Brexit currently occupies all the space in media and politics, and no one quite knows what’s going to rush in when that space is finally vacated.
Ukip will still grab some of the headlines and drive the conversation, to a point, but electoral failure - and without local people there is only failure - leads to less media exposure. Ukip will be ranting into the void.